The recent commentary about Obama’s “lack of compassion” and “lack of action” of the Gulf Oil Spill seems to miss the point. Spike Lee was interviewed with Anderson Cooper a few days ago and said Obama should “go off”. So Obama did by saying he was looking at “whose ass to kick”.
We don’t want him to swear.
We don’t want him to “go off”.
We don’t want him to just show up for photo ops.
We don’t want his only suggestion to be to sue BP and threaten criminal action.
We want him to be a leader.
I wanted him to declare affected states as “disaster areas”. This would have freed up Federal funds to get to work immediately to prevent oil from washing ashore and to cleaning it up as fast as possible.
I wanted him to call Tony Hayward on Day 1 and ask him what resources BP needed from the Federal government to get the well capped as soon as possible. BP could have said what machines, hardware, booms, or whatever else they needed.
I wanted him to issue an executive order suspending all Federal rules and laws that are current roadblocks to building berms, using dispersants, and other measures that could prevent the mess and contain the spill. This would have let Louisiana build berms without having to wait weeks to get permission from EPA and other agencies.
I am glad he put Admiral Thad Allen as spokesman and that the Coast Guard is involved. That should have been done Day 1, however, instead of just a few weeks ago.
I wanted him to add comments to each speech he made over the past 50+ days on the State of the Spill and the Federal government’s role in supporting BP and the affected States. He could have set expectations, too. He could have been reminding the people that the most likely scenario said 90 days to build relief wells to stop the spill. He could have been with us on how frustrating it is to watch that oil but also been optimistic that the well will be capped eventually and that the mess will be cleaned up and that life will go on.
I wanted him to provide a hotline at the Coast Guard or DHS or another department where people with great ideas could call them in or email them and get action on them. Or volunteer to clean up with their own boats. Or do something. Americans love to step in and help. A coordinated center for volunteers to help would have been great.
NO ONE in the media is talking like this. In response to complaints from the right that he’s not doing enough and doesn’t seem engaged, the ones on the left are saying he should be getting madder. We don’t need anger. We’re already frustrated and angry. We need a competent leader that brings people together for a common goal of capping the well and cleaning the spill, not agitating anger and animosity.
Monday, June 14, 2010
Thursday, April 15, 2010
Anthropogenic Global Warming
I wrote this because this professional association of statisticians has remained fairly quiet on global warming. As I recall a few years ago they did publish an article that pointed out all sorts of flaws with the science at the time. The article referenced below also points out many data processing errors. I am no longer going to sit back; I am now in the letter writing business. I will be happy to explain model bias separately if you contact me.
To the ASA Membership Chair and to the Editors of Amstat News:
The article “Statisticians Comment on Status of Climate Change Science” in the March 2010 issue of Amstat News left me wondering whether the dues I pay to the American Statistical Association are paying for any part of the work by ASA’s Climate Change Policy Advisory Committee. Please know that I do not want my dues funding this committee and I do not want ASA making position statements on the status of “climate change science” on its behalf. Additionally, if ASA makes statements on behalf of its members, which includes me, about the notion of anthropogenic global warming, I will terminate my membership in the Association.
I remain a skeptic of the “overwhelming” science of anthropogenic global warming because, as an industrial statistician, model bias from failing to include important factors leads to precarious conclusions, at best. It seems to me that because there is evidence that CO2 levels were twice as high as they are now millions of years ago, long before humankind walked the earth, there are surely factors missing from current models, factors that would have caused prior warming periods and periods of elevated CO2. Furthermore plotting temperature data collected from small patches of the earth’s surface over the past 140 years would have no discernible (hockey stick) trend (i.e. be part of the noise) if plotted over 400,000 years or 4,000,000 years or 4,000,0000,000 years. Don’t we teach our statistics students to plot data scaled in context, to avoid making false claims?
Yours truly,
To the ASA Membership Chair and to the Editors of Amstat News:
The article “Statisticians Comment on Status of Climate Change Science” in the March 2010 issue of Amstat News left me wondering whether the dues I pay to the American Statistical Association are paying for any part of the work by ASA’s Climate Change Policy Advisory Committee. Please know that I do not want my dues funding this committee and I do not want ASA making position statements on the status of “climate change science” on its behalf. Additionally, if ASA makes statements on behalf of its members, which includes me, about the notion of anthropogenic global warming, I will terminate my membership in the Association.
I remain a skeptic of the “overwhelming” science of anthropogenic global warming because, as an industrial statistician, model bias from failing to include important factors leads to precarious conclusions, at best. It seems to me that because there is evidence that CO2 levels were twice as high as they are now millions of years ago, long before humankind walked the earth, there are surely factors missing from current models, factors that would have caused prior warming periods and periods of elevated CO2. Furthermore plotting temperature data collected from small patches of the earth’s surface over the past 140 years would have no discernible (hockey stick) trend (i.e. be part of the noise) if plotted over 400,000 years or 4,000,000 years or 4,000,0000,000 years. Don’t we teach our statistics students to plot data scaled in context, to avoid making false claims?
Yours truly,
Monday, March 22, 2010
Local City Government Passes Ordinance to Install Red Light Cameras
The past few days have been enormously distressing in our Country. But to add insult to injury while running errands the other day, I saw the headline in the local newspaper that the you on the city council have passed an ordinance to allow cameras at intersections in town. This is regretful and I requested that the council repeal this ordinance for these reasons:
- Their use is an invasion of privacy.
- They do not target drivers but rather vehicle owners.
- Private companies should not be generating profit and revenue directly, as a percentage, from enforcing City Code.
- Last month Circuit Judge Bagley in South Florida determined the devices are unconstitutional.
- Two years ago the Minnesota Supreme Court struck down red light cameras in their State.
- The National Motorists Association cite 5 studies that show accidents are not reduced at intersections with cameras and may increase accidents.
- Some of their studies concluded that the only benefit was increasing revenues to local governments. Such use is an abuse of governmental power.
- The AAA recommends increased enforcement and traffic engineering improvements as preferred over red light cameras.
- Not too long ago, FoxNews reported that the AAA announced that municipalities are abusing the use of red light cameras to increase revenue.
Perhaps rather than installing the cameras, the City should just install signs that photo enforcement is used for red light running without actually installing them and then issue cameras to City police officers.
Too many elected leaders at too many levels of government are overreaching their just authority. Please refrain from doing so as well.
- Their use is an invasion of privacy.
- They do not target drivers but rather vehicle owners.
- Private companies should not be generating profit and revenue directly, as a percentage, from enforcing City Code.
- Last month Circuit Judge Bagley in South Florida determined the devices are unconstitutional.
- Two years ago the Minnesota Supreme Court struck down red light cameras in their State.
- The National Motorists Association cite 5 studies that show accidents are not reduced at intersections with cameras and may increase accidents.
- Some of their studies concluded that the only benefit was increasing revenues to local governments. Such use is an abuse of governmental power.
- The AAA recommends increased enforcement and traffic engineering improvements as preferred over red light cameras.
- Not too long ago, FoxNews reported that the AAA announced that municipalities are abusing the use of red light cameras to increase revenue.
Perhaps rather than installing the cameras, the City should just install signs that photo enforcement is used for red light running without actually installing them and then issue cameras to City police officers.
Too many elected leaders at too many levels of government are overreaching their just authority. Please refrain from doing so as well.
Sunday, March 21, 2010
Health Care Reform and a Constitutional Crisis
Here is a letter to Senator Bill Nelson of Florida, up for reelection in 2012, on March 20, 2010. He is the Senator that engineered one of the special deals for his State, but only for part of his State. Dubbed "Gator-aid" he has reduced cuts to Medicare Advantage only for a few counties in the State that vote Democratic. The rest of the State, that votes Republican, won't be eligible for reduced cuts to Medicare Advantage. Apparently he is unfamiliar with the 14the amendment, providing equal protection of the laws.
"Dear Senator Nelson:
I am thoroughly disappointed in the process that this Congress is using to force a health care bill onto the American people who do not want this change. The bribes, blackmail, and extortion are abhorrent. The unequal ‘protection’ of this law is unconstitutional that citizens of some States or parts of States are treated differently under this proposed law than of other States. For example, my retired father has Medicare Advantage but by living in Central Florida rather than South Florida, by your doing, he won't get to keep his plan. This is so un-American it's appalling to know that you, of all people, are behind it.
Please take some time to reflect on what you and your colleagues are doing and why you're doing it. I have always thought of you, Senator Nelson, to be a reasonable person. But I think reason has escaped the Democratic leadership in both houses of Congress and the members following that leadership, too.
Please do not move forward with this bad bill which lacks bipartisan support nor even support of enough Democrats in the House to agree with the Senate's version. Furthermore 37 States are planning to sue to block this awful bill because Congress is overreaching its Constitutional authority, because the process is not Constitutional, and because it will raise $1 trillion in new taxes that the People cannot afford. The lack of enough support and the lawsuits should be a clear sign to you that our Union is on the brink of a Constitutional crisis because of this bill. Please ask yourself whether the Union is more important than Obama's health care bill. Hopefully, the Union is more important.
"Dear Senator Nelson:
I am thoroughly disappointed in the process that this Congress is using to force a health care bill onto the American people who do not want this change. The bribes, blackmail, and extortion are abhorrent. The unequal ‘protection’ of this law is unconstitutional that citizens of some States or parts of States are treated differently under this proposed law than of other States. For example, my retired father has Medicare Advantage but by living in Central Florida rather than South Florida, by your doing, he won't get to keep his plan. This is so un-American it's appalling to know that you, of all people, are behind it.
Please take some time to reflect on what you and your colleagues are doing and why you're doing it. I have always thought of you, Senator Nelson, to be a reasonable person. But I think reason has escaped the Democratic leadership in both houses of Congress and the members following that leadership, too.
Please do not move forward with this bad bill which lacks bipartisan support nor even support of enough Democrats in the House to agree with the Senate's version. Furthermore 37 States are planning to sue to block this awful bill because Congress is overreaching its Constitutional authority, because the process is not Constitutional, and because it will raise $1 trillion in new taxes that the People cannot afford. The lack of enough support and the lawsuits should be a clear sign to you that our Union is on the brink of a Constitutional crisis because of this bill. Please ask yourself whether the Union is more important than Obama's health care bill. Hopefully, the Union is more important.
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
The State of the Mall
Fellow Americans, the State of the Mall is declining. Though the movie theatre still has traffic and the three anchor stores remain open, the two major restaurants are closed. Larger stores are liquidating their merchandise with banners of “Going Out of Business” and of the 90 smaller stores between the anchors, 28 are now closed leaving 62 stores still open, of which 11 are cheesier than the stores we used to have. It’s amazing that 5 of the 51 better quality stores sell cell phones, 6 sell various quality-levels of jewelry, and 6 more cut hair, trim nails, and wax eyebrows. Some stores hang up temporary signs in their storefronts. A few more buy rather than sell! They are buying gold. One such store has walls painted a bright gold color, with leather wing back chairs. A man sits at a desk ready to assess the jewelry and trinkets people bring to trade for Federal Reserve Notes (i.e. dollars). There are a few shoppers. But not many people in the stores themselves. Clearly the State of the Mall is sad. It reflects the State of the Economy and the State of the Union. But furthermore, the Mall is in the midst of bankruptcy proceedings. And they are serving eviction notices to tenants on Christmas Eve. This mall opened in 1998. Twelve years seems short for an expensive mall.
So how do we improve the State of the Mall? Stores will be profitable if there are people shopping and spending. People will shop and spend if they feel there is low risk to doing so. People will feel there is low risk to shopping and spending if they have jobs and feel some degree of certainty that they’ll keep their jobs. Who’ll offer these jobs? Stores and other employers will hire employees if they are fairly certain that they will have enough excess income to do so.
So where does the certainty come from? Certainty is the absence of uncertainty and unpredictability. Can we predict whether the health care bill will pass or not? Not really. If it passes, do we know what drain on the economy the new taxes will cause? No, we don’t. Can we guess whether cap and trade legislation will be resurrected? If it is, do we know how much it will impact consumer spending and employment rates? Not even close. Do we know what is next on the President’s agenda? Well we certainly weren’t expecting him to cancel the Constellation Program at NASA or the Missile Defense program at the DoD. We weren’t expecting him to allow Eric Holder to hold a civilian trial for avowed terrorists within one of our cities. We don’t know whether we’ll be attacked by terrorists this year but it seems more likely with three small attacks on our soil in the past year. We don’t know whether the stock market is going to drop again precipitously in the next several months, like it did a year ago. We don’t know when inflation is going to hit or how bad it will be. We don’t know whether Israel and Iran will be the first shot in a third World War. We don’t know how long it will take for the housing market to recover. We don’t know how long unemployment will be so high nor how long it will take for consumers to start spending again. We don’t know what Congress is going to cook up next. The fact is there is too much bad news and too much uncertainty in the system for people to take risks. So the State of the Mall, of our Town Centers, our Economy and our Union will continue to decline until stability and certainty are the norms.
So how do we improve the State of the Mall? Stores will be profitable if there are people shopping and spending. People will shop and spend if they feel there is low risk to doing so. People will feel there is low risk to shopping and spending if they have jobs and feel some degree of certainty that they’ll keep their jobs. Who’ll offer these jobs? Stores and other employers will hire employees if they are fairly certain that they will have enough excess income to do so.
So where does the certainty come from? Certainty is the absence of uncertainty and unpredictability. Can we predict whether the health care bill will pass or not? Not really. If it passes, do we know what drain on the economy the new taxes will cause? No, we don’t. Can we guess whether cap and trade legislation will be resurrected? If it is, do we know how much it will impact consumer spending and employment rates? Not even close. Do we know what is next on the President’s agenda? Well we certainly weren’t expecting him to cancel the Constellation Program at NASA or the Missile Defense program at the DoD. We weren’t expecting him to allow Eric Holder to hold a civilian trial for avowed terrorists within one of our cities. We don’t know whether we’ll be attacked by terrorists this year but it seems more likely with three small attacks on our soil in the past year. We don’t know whether the stock market is going to drop again precipitously in the next several months, like it did a year ago. We don’t know when inflation is going to hit or how bad it will be. We don’t know whether Israel and Iran will be the first shot in a third World War. We don’t know how long it will take for the housing market to recover. We don’t know how long unemployment will be so high nor how long it will take for consumers to start spending again. We don’t know what Congress is going to cook up next. The fact is there is too much bad news and too much uncertainty in the system for people to take risks. So the State of the Mall, of our Town Centers, our Economy and our Union will continue to decline until stability and certainty are the norms.
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
Elections Have Consequences
There are hundreds of small businesses and dozens of large businesses affected by President Obama’s cancellation of the Constellation program this week. (Constellation is the next human spaceflight program under development while Shuttle is flown out.) At one particular small business, the CEO, the manager, and half the staff all voted for Obama in the election for President in November 2008. Now within weeks or months 80% of the employees may not have a contract to charge to. It is highly unlikely that without a revenue stream, these employees will be kept on the payroll. So a dozen engineers will be out of work, and it’s all because elections have consequences. When the People of the Many States elected Barack Obama, who warned us during the primary campaign with Hillary Clinton that he was going to delay Constellation to fund education priorities, the consequence is executive prerogative whether to continue programs or not (subject to Congressional approval). I would love to ask the CEO and the manager if they are happy with their vote. Or if they wish now that McCain was elected. I would love to ask them what they have done or are doing to continue the Constellation program. Have they called or sent letters asking to keep it? Or do they believe so blindly in Obama, that they’ve decided it’s better to lay off all the engineers and close up the business since obviously he knows what is best for us?
Elections have consequences. So we need to pay really close attention before we vote and then monitor actions of elected leaders once we’ve voted them in. We should not just nod in agreement to our elected leaders as they dig the hole into which they bury our existence.
Elections have consequences. So we need to pay really close attention before we vote and then monitor actions of elected leaders once we’ve voted them in. We should not just nod in agreement to our elected leaders as they dig the hole into which they bury our existence.
Thursday, January 28, 2010
First Post
Do you like my Blog name?
Try to figure out what it means, what it's derived from, and how the letters were anglicized a bit.
You may call me Sinda or S.G. or just blogger...
This blog will provide data-driven arguments for policy positions, among other topics of interest.
For example, last year a colleague asked me "don't you want universal healthcare?", I didn't know how to respond. That's because his question is a loaded question. If you don't want everyone to have health care, you would be a bad person, so you have to answer yes. But the problem with his question is how one defines "universal healthcare".
dictionary.com defines "universal" as "affecting or involving all".
Now here comes the good part. While universal healthcare may mean a central-government-run single-payer system to him, to me, it's what we already have in the U.S. Let me be more specific: in this country ANYONE can call their local insurance agent and sign up for a health insurance policy. Or you can visit http://www.ehealthinsurance.com/ to find a policy. I found one for myself for $155 per month based on my gender, age, and zipcode only. So I could lease a little car for $155 per month, or I could buy this health insurance policy. I could save 10% of my income over my lifetime and be self-insured. I could visit a Walgreens "Take Care" walk in clinic for an exam for $59 to $74 per visit. Or I could wait until I'm really sick and go to the emergency room as an indigent. It's really cool to be an American where we have the economic freedom to make these choices.
So next time a colleague from work puts the pressure on you, "don't you think Universal Healthcare is a good goal?", tell him "we already have universal healthcare and we're fortunate to be free people where we can decide whether to buy health insurance or lease a new car, whether to visit the doctor or buy a flat screen TV, to save for a rainy and sick day, or to go on a cruise every year. That's what it means to be American, to have the freedom to make decisions ourselves.
Until next week,
S.G.
Try to figure out what it means, what it's derived from, and how the letters were anglicized a bit.
You may call me Sinda or S.G. or just blogger...
This blog will provide data-driven arguments for policy positions, among other topics of interest.
For example, last year a colleague asked me "don't you want universal healthcare?", I didn't know how to respond. That's because his question is a loaded question. If you don't want everyone to have health care, you would be a bad person, so you have to answer yes. But the problem with his question is how one defines "universal healthcare".
dictionary.com defines "universal" as "affecting or involving all".
Now here comes the good part. While universal healthcare may mean a central-government-run single-payer system to him, to me, it's what we already have in the U.S. Let me be more specific: in this country ANYONE can call their local insurance agent and sign up for a health insurance policy. Or you can visit http://www.ehealthinsurance.com/ to find a policy. I found one for myself for $155 per month based on my gender, age, and zipcode only. So I could lease a little car for $155 per month, or I could buy this health insurance policy. I could save 10% of my income over my lifetime and be self-insured. I could visit a Walgreens "Take Care" walk in clinic for an exam for $59 to $74 per visit. Or I could wait until I'm really sick and go to the emergency room as an indigent. It's really cool to be an American where we have the economic freedom to make these choices.
So next time a colleague from work puts the pressure on you, "don't you think Universal Healthcare is a good goal?", tell him "we already have universal healthcare and we're fortunate to be free people where we can decide whether to buy health insurance or lease a new car, whether to visit the doctor or buy a flat screen TV, to save for a rainy and sick day, or to go on a cruise every year. That's what it means to be American, to have the freedom to make decisions ourselves.
Until next week,
S.G.
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